Bodies of Canadians killed in Taliban attack returned home

The bodies of two Canadian auditors killed in a Taliban attack last week in Kabul, Afghanistan, have been returned to Canada.

The bodies of Peter McSheffrey, 49, and Martin Glazer, 43,  were aboard a Department of National Defence plane and arrived at CFB Trenton in Ontario late Wednesday night.

They were repatriated just after 11 p.m. ET.

McSheffrey, who's from Ottawa, and Glazer, from nearby Gatineau, Que., were among 21 people killed when two gunmen and a suicide bomber attacked La Taverna du Liban restaurant on Jan. 17.

The attack was the deadliest violence against foreign civilians in Afghanistan since the start of the war nearly 13 years ago.

Both men worked as auditors for the financial services company, Samson & Associates, and were in Afghanistan to assess projects delivered by non-governmental organizations.

The Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development financially backed the projects, according to a spokeswoman.

They had been in Kabul for less than a week and had been scheduled to return to Canada this week, according to their boss, Pierre Samson.

Glazer's funeral is scheduled for Feb. 1 in Gatineau at Notre-Dame-du-Très-Saint-Rosaire church. The details for McSheffrey's funeral have not been released.

Glazer's family has asked for any donations to be made to the Canadian Cancer Society or Trips for Kids Ottawa, a group that promotes cycling for underprivileged children.

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Not all ethnic media outlets keen to pose with PM

Given the time and attention both he and his government have devoted to courting ethnic voters, it shouldn't have come as a surprise to learn that Prime Minister Stephen Harper held a private tête-a-têtes with representatives from the local ethnic and cultural press during a recent swing through British Columbia.

Thanks to Vancouver 24 Hours reporter Jeremy Nuttall — who, to give credit where credit is due, was not only the first to write about the event, but also managed to obtain the audio, which he promptly posted to the web — we now have some idea what went on behind closed doors: a "fawning thank you" from one reporter, a question about his "legacy" from another, and an offer by Harper to pose for pictures after the session wrapped up. 

But according to Nuttall, two of the larger media outlets in the area — Chinese language newspaper Sing Tao, which is partly owned by the Toronto Star publishing group, and multicultural broadcaster Omni TV, which is part of the Rogers media family — were notably absent from the PM's roundtable.

Nuttall also interviewed Asian Journal editor Rattan Mall, who said that "out of the Lower Mainland's South Asian papers, only the Asian Star and Indo-Canadian Times were at the event," and described the selection process as "weird."

"I think they like to reach out to the non-English, ethnic media ... They're really very different, each one has got its own agenda ... sometimes some journalists want to get ads, so they compromise," Mall told Vancouver 24 Hours.

'Cattle call gong show' 

It's that sort of potential compromise that concerns Canadian Ethnic Media Association chair and Omni TV vice-president Madeline Zinick.

"Generally, those journalists who are aggressive, and who like to do analysis and be challenging to the PM or any politician, more and more, they aren't enjoying this kind of cattle call gong show approach," she told CBC News.

According to Zinick, before the holidays Harper, who skipped his annual Christmas reception for the parliamentary press gallery, was the guest of honour at what his office billed as an "intimate family event" in Toronto, to which key "media leaders" were encouraged to bring members of their families in lieu of a TV crew.

"No cameras, no photos, no audio ... you can't report it in any way. Everyone had to wait in the holding area until Harper and his wife [Laureen] appeared, and there were no questions, just individual photos."

Given those restrictions, Zinick says, "Why go and waste your time?"

Access a 'badge of honour' for some

But for some smaller community newspapers and radio stations, rubbing shoulders with the prime minister or other high-ranking government officials can be seen as a "badge of honour," she says — especially if that may not have been the case in their homeland.

Still, she believes ethnic media must be accountable, and not just "humbly accept these photo ops."

"One could say, 'Hey, it's great that they're paying attention to diversity, and having sessions with smaller newspapers and media entities that can have a hard time in a large scrum with traditional or larger ethnic media entities, so you're giving them that opportunity,' but what is that opportunity?

"It's a very controlled environment where some questions aren't answered ... They know the ones who ask the hard questions, and sometimes, those reporters aren't invited."

She agrees that it's important to pay attention to all ethnic media outlets, and not just the giants.

"But I don't want it to be a situation where you're abusing that goodwill, and the fact that a lot of community leaders love to show their communities, 'I'm important, I'm next to the PM.'"

Link between coverage, ad buys questioned

On a broader scale, Zinick would like to get more details on how, exactly, the government decides where to put the steadily increasing chunk of the federal advertising budget earmarked for ethnic publications.

"We know it's not exactly an equitable approach," she says.

"For a smaller community, like, say, the Roma community, it might be the only available outlet in their own language, but if you have 11 Spanish-language radio shows, how are they making the selection? We've seen some interesting choices in that regard."

Even a modest government ad buy could represent a far more substantial percentage of annual revenue for a smaller media organization than a large one. 

Prime Minister's Office spokesperson Carl Vallee declined to comment on how the PM's office decides which ethnic media outlets to add to — or, for that matter, remove from — the invite list.

"The prime minister regularly does roundtables with members of cultural media across the country because he believes it's important to keep the Canadians that they speak to informed about the national life of our country," he told CBC News.

He also dismissed the suggestion of a link between ad buys and tone of coverage.

"Ad buys are determined by Public Works and Government Services Canada via an independent process," Vallee said.

Those rules wouldn't apply to the Conservative Party, of course.  

Media coverage study

While working on an ongoing study into how Toronto-area ethnic media covered the last election, Ryerson University associate journalism professor April Lindgren noted a possible correlation. 

"In one Punjabi-language newspaper, for instance, the number of Conservative advertisements was about double the total of ads placed by the Liberals and NDP combined," she notes.

"While the stories in that newspaper tended be neutral in tone overall, it did favour the Conservatives in terms of more subtle indicators of bias," Lindgren says. "The Conservatives, for instance, were most frequently the focus of stories where only one party was mentioned. They also appeared in the most photographs and tended to be the first party mentioned in stories.

"Some of this might be the result of a more effective, aggressive Tory campaign," she stresses. "The Conservative may have been better at getting their people out there talking to ethnic media. But you can't rule out that advertising dollars also had an influence." 

For instance, she says "when I looked at a second Punjabi-language newspaper where each of the parties purchased about the same amount of advertising, the Conservative advantaged in terms of coverage was less pronounced. In fact, in that case, Liberals actually appeared most frequently in photographs published during the campaign period."

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$22M Attawapiskat financial statement mixup slips by unnoticed

Attawapiskat First Nation's latest audited consolidated financial statements contain an error that makes it appear as if tens of millions of dollars were being spent on social assistance under sectors such as infrastructure, economic development and governance.

The northern Ontario band near James Bay has had a history of financial troubles and has been working toward improving both its accounting practices and its bottom line.

But in statements meant to detail the First Nation's spending for the 2012-13 fiscal year, it appears that more than $22 million was spent on social assistance payments under infrastructure. In contrast, the statements indicate only $81,656 was spent on social assistance payments under the actual category of social assistance.

'We know there are a number of people [here] on social assistance, but not $22 million worth.'— Wayne Turner, band manager for Attawapiskat

When contacted by CBC News, Attawapiskat band manager Wayne Turner said he would look into it, agreeing that it did not make sense.

It turns out there was a clerical error.

"We know there are a number of people [here] on social assistance, but not $22 million worth," said Turner. "Somewhere along the line the spreadsheets got out of alignment and it wasn't caught."

A line item for more than $22 million in social assistance programs jumped out in the approved audit for Attawapiskat. The figure was in the wrong column.

It turns out the $22 million in question was not spent on social assistance, but on operations and maintenance under the band's infrastructure program, the bulk of which is going toward building a new school. And once the line items are matched properly with the numbers, it becomes clear that a little more than $4.5 million was spent on social assistance to members of the band.

What's not clear is whether the error happened on the band's end when submitting its statements to their auditor, Timmins-based Ross, Pope & Company, or on the auditor's side when it brought the numbers into its software program. But neither the band nor the auditor caught the mistake. The auditor responsible, Mark Dell'Erede, did not return numerous calls from CBC News.

The Department of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development said it "received and accepted" Attawapiskat's audited consolidated financial statements in August 2013.

"The First Nation was notified in December 2013 that a full review had been completed," according to a statement sent from the department to CBC News. "Please note that by accepting the audited statement it means the department has no concerns."

Ottawa focuses on the consolidated statements of financial position, financial activities and accumulated surplus, change in net debt and cash flows to determine the financial health of a band. It does not necessarily look at Schedule B, the band's segmented expenses, which is the part of the audit where the error occurred.

But the federal government requires First Nations to lay out their segmented expenses as well as a schedule of band salaries, honorariums and travel expenditures in order to provide transparency and accountability to band members and the general public.

Band manager Turner said that although the descriptions of where the money was spent were wrong, the numbers themselves were not.

"We are a small organization, with four people responsible for managing the finances. It's significant undertaking," he said. "Perhaps there was not enough oversight on the description part. Generally the focus is on the numbers to make sure they jive and are correct."

"But when we do present statements, we want them not to have any errors," he said.

In 2011, after the First Nation's housing crisis hit the headlines, the federal government hired auditing firm Deloitte to look at the band's financials back to 2005. The audit, released in January 2013, found significant documentation lacking for the $104 million transferred to the band from the federal government between 2005 and 2011.

The band has been under co-management for more than a decade, which is supposed to mean it has access to additional resources from the federal government to manage its financial position. For a brief period of time the federal government put it under third party management, which essentially wrests control of the finances from the band and council. The band has been returned to co-management status and is currently recruiting for a new co-manager after its previous one left for another job.

Attawapiskat still grapples with unpaid user fees from band members meant to help cover water, sewer and sanitation costs. For 2012-13, more than $2.3 million is considered "allowance for doubtful accounts," which is essentially money the band has little confidence in ever being able to collect.

But Turner said the band has made progress in its financial documentation and reporting and has halted a policy of allowing employee pay advances.

He said the statements are now being fixed and will be reposted to the band's website within a week. As well, he has notified both the Department of Aboriginal Affairs and the audit firm Ross, Pope & Company.

Mobile users can view the document here.

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The political steamroller that is Quebec's charter of values

You can tell it's coming on election season in Quebec because almost every day there has been a new drama created by the Parti Quebecois' proposed charter of values.

Last week, as formal public hearings began into the secularization project, it was the Pineault-Caron family, from the Saguenay town of Sacré-Coeur, who stole the show.

Their testimony about the upsetting sights and sounds of Islam they suffered during their travels in Morocco and Turkey — and their conclusion that it is "unthinkable" to allow people in such "disguises" to roam around in public in Quebec — became something of a YouTube sensation, registering close to 300,000 hits.

This week, Quebec's Liberal party was the political casualty. Five months late to the debate, it was preparing to unveil its official position on the charter — OK to leave the crucifix in the legislature, but no face-covering garments like niqabs in the public service — when veteran Liberal Fatima Houda-Pépin left to sit as an independent.

The only Muslim in the National Assembly, Houda-Pépin claimed irreconcilable differences with Philippe Couillard's caucus over its stand. (She supports imposing a secular dress code only on those in positions of legal authority, like judges and policemen.)

But regardless of their differences, it is a loss the Liberals can ill afford. The once-governing party was already widely criticized for being AWOL on the issue, if not in general.

Long-serving Quebec Liberal MNA Fatima Houda-Pepin, the only Muslim in the Quebec National Assembly, left the party earlier this week to sit as an independent. (Jacques Boissinot / Canadian Press)

More importantly, it was proof that the divide-and-conquer politics of the charter are working wonders for Pauline Marois's PQ.

A Léger poll on Monday found that that 60 per cent of Quebecers back the secular charter, and support for it among the crucial French-speaking voters has risen to 69 per cent.

The poll also ranks the PQ's overall support at 36 per cent, a figure that sees them edging towards majority government territory.

Election ploy

For many Quebecers, the secular charter has long been seen as little more than an electoral ploy for the PQ, a bet that raising divisive identity politics will recoup the francophone vote lost to the upstart Coalition Avenir Quebec in the last election.

The Leger poll says support for the CAQ is down 10 points from the 2012 election. So to believe these numbers, the strategy is a winner.

But one poll doesn't complete the political calculus. The PQ has a few hurdles in its path to a clear majority, its upcoming budget being the biggest among them.

In an economic update in November, Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau reported that government overspending and lower-than-expected revenues have left the PQ unable to balance its budget as promised.

Instead, it will run a $2.5 billion deficit, a billion up from last year, and put off the zero-deficit plan for another two years.

Both the Liberals and the CAQ have vowed to vote against the budget, which would of course bring down Marois's minority government and trigger an election.

Whether these parties' falling fortunes will lead them to a different conclusion come budget day remains to be seen.

But the controversy over the province's weakened finances — and the fuss the business community is likely to kick up over a variety of government initiatives — could well make a dent in the PQ momentum.

The charter itself also stands to take a few hits, likely more damaging ones than the easy-to-pick-on Pineault-Carons.

'Essential and incontrovertible'

The minister responsible for the charter, Bernard Drainville, opened the parliamentary commission on Bill 60 by saying that the ban on conspicuous religious symbols in public service — the bill's most controversial clause — is "essential and incontrovertible."

In so stating, he essentially told the 200-some individuals and institutions who have filed briefs with the commission that they would be listened to, but not heard.

Quebec Premier Pauline Marois, edging close to majority territory? (Graham Hughes / Canadian Press)

Since then, many of the heavyweights due to testify have made their briefs public in advance, and the weight of considered opinion against the PQ plan is also increasing.

For example, the Federation of Quebec School Boards, which backs much of the bill but employs a significant number of people who would be subjected to the ban, says the policy will undoubtedly result in numerous and extremely costly workplace conflicts.

It concludes the ban should be removed from the bill.

The association representing Quebec health-care establishments goes further, saying that 99 per cent of its members have never been confronted with a problem accommodating minority rights, and that the ban is "inapplicable."

Moreover, they strongly suggest the government seek out a legal opinion from the Quebec Court of Appeal before enacting this new law.

Of course, the legality of the bill has always been at issue. The PQ has legal opinions that say the law is sound, but they are largely based on the say-so of two people.

Meanwhile, the Quebec Bar association differs, and does so rather aggressively.

Its brief elevates the issue from a costly workplace headache to one of fundamental rights and freedoms. It states unconditionally that Bill 60 contravenes the Quebec and Canadian charters of rights, as well as international law.

But then, for those who see the charter as an elaborate and cynical electoral ploy, a court challenge — especially one that might be initiated by the federal government — could well be the strategy's endgame.

The fight that Quebecers are currently having with each other would then land on the national stage, and play out through the hardball politics of a fight for independence.

Meanwhile, with Quebec's other soap opera, the construction industry inquiry, now looking into a possible influence-seeking arrangement between Quebec's largest union and the PQ, Marois might want to bear in mind that reversals of fortune make for the best-watched dramas, and that the rest of the charter affair is still to unfold.

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Stephen Harper to meet King Abdullah in Jordan

Prime minister makes his first-ever stop in Jordan after 2 days of royal treatment in Israel

The Canadian Press Posted: Jan 23, 2014 6:26 AM ET Last Updated: Jan 23, 2014 6:26 AM ET

Prime Minister Stephen Harper began his first-ever visit to Jordan with a roundtable discussion involving a variety of officials and business leaders from the Muslim kingdom.

Harper, who was accompanied by International Trade Minister Ed Fast, made brief remarks in Amman during the discussion about the importance of the Canadian-Jordanian relationship.

Others at the roundtable included Nayef Stetieh, the president of the Jordanian-Canadian Business Association, and Royal Jordanian Airlines chairman H.E. Nasser Lozi.

Harper is also scheduled to meet today with the country's prime minister, as well as King Abdullah.

He will also visit the Za'atri refugee camp, which is home to tens of thousands of Syrian refugees who have fled the civil war in their country.

Syria is expected to be a key topic of discussion in Harper's meetings.

Harper's two days in the Muslim kingdom follow a triumphant visit to Israel during which he was treated like royalty by Israeli officials and citizens alike.

Jordan and Israel have had official diplomatic relations since they signed a peace treaty in 1994. King Abdullah views Israel as a vital regional ally in the Middle East.

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The House

• Stephen Harper's first official visit to Israel Jan. 18, 2014 6:47 AM This week on The House, guest-host Alison Smith looks ahead to Prime Minister Stephen Harper's official visit to Israel with the new Israeli ambassador to Canada, Rafael Barak, and Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander. Then, Official Opposition leader Tom Mulcair joins us to discuss the how he's getting ready for the next election.

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Confusion over 'iPod tax' deepens

It's still unclear whether Canadians will have to absorb a five per cent tariff when they purchase an MP3 player in 2015, even though many people don't even use the music devices anymore.

In its 2013 budget, the government removed a tariff-free category on many goods manufactured in about 70 countries, including China where most MP3 players are made.

The idea of an MP3 tax is a particularly sensitive one for the government because Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had regularly pilloried the NDP for what he called its proposed tax on iPods.

The NDP had suggested a levy, similar to the one on blank CDs, that funnels money to artists whose music is vulnerable to piracy — illegal copying or downloading.  

Last April, Flaherty, speaking in the House of Commons, said, "Just to be clear, Mr. Speaker, there is no tax on iPods, even your iPod."

CBSA has a different opinion

It's not clear if a five per cent tariff will be placed on MP3 players next year or not. (Jacques Brinon/Associated Press)

But, emails obtained through an access to information request by a business professor seem to show that the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), which regulates tariffs, differs sharply on whether the portable music-playing devices will face a tariff next year.

Mike Moffatt, of the University of Western Ontario in London, detailed the results of his access requests in an article published Tuesday in Canadian Business magazine.

Moffatt reproduced emails from CBSA about an earlier article he'd written pointing out the government had removed tariff protections from about 70 countries on a variety of goods, including MP3 players, in its 2013 budget.

Michelle Rempel, the parliamentary secretary for environment, told host Even Solomon of CBC News Network's Power & Politics in April, "The devices — for lack of a more technical term — that plug into a computer are exempt from this [tariff]."

The emails Moffatt obtained show the CBSA thought his article was "spot on" and "hit the nail on the head."

At one point, Moffatt learned, Doré Charbonneau, then a communications manager at CBSA, prepared a draft version of a media response on the day Rempel spoke on Power & Politics.

"The CBSA would like to clarify the tariff classifications for iPods as well as other electronics," Charbonneau wrote, but the media response was never released.

She continued, "It's important to clarify that iPods do not qualify for the provisions of tariff item (TI) 9948.00.00. In order for goods to qualify for importation under TI 9948.00, they must be for use in computers and enhance the functions of the computer."

On Tuesday, Moffatt said the issue is still in limbo as government officials can't seem to agree whether 9948 applies to MP3 devices.

"You'd think the CBSA — the people who enforce the rules — if they say it doesn't apply, it shouldn't apply. But Finance hasn't changed their position at all," Moffatt said.

Real battle is over TVs

Moffatt pointed out the real battle probably isn't over MP3 players, but wide-screen TVs, a much bigger market. For years he explained, Sony, Panasonic, Wal-Mart, and other electronics importers, have been bringing TVs into Canada tariff-free on the grounds they plug into computers.

In 2008, CBSA told the importers they owed $16 million in back taxes, and the dispute has been ongoing.

Moffatt said the case will eventually end up at a tax tribunal.

"Finance and the government have basically scuttled the CBSA's case. It's going to be hard for the CBSA to argue with a straight face, 'You're not allowed to use 9948'. Sony is going to [use] Michelle Rempel, who was on P&P, saying, 'If you can plug it into a computer, it's eligible for 9948.'"

Glenn Thibeault, the NDP critic for consumer protection, told CBC News: "They've put a tax on iPods and 1,200 other goods."

He claims the government plans to raise $33 million annually from adding tariffs to a variety of imported goods.

"If they're having a hard time understanding this [tariff] between agencies, imagine the trouble Canadian consumers and businesses have trying to understand this," he said.

A spokeswoman for the Finance Department said in an email to CBC News that "iPods have been coming into Canada tariff free for many years. Our government will ensure this continues so that there are no tariffs on iPods or other listening devices imported into Canada."

Kathleen Perchaluk continued, "Internal email exchanges between CBSA bureaucrats do not constitute government policy."

Moffatt suspects the government may add an exemption specifically for MP3 players in its Budget 2014.

Most people now listen to music on smartphones, which are in a different tariff category.

"By the year 2015," he said, which is when the tariffs are supposed to be in place. "There may not be very many iPod sales in general."

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PM's Israel trip, Parliament returns on Wednesdays with Kady

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Kady O'Malley chats about Stephen Harper's visit to Israel and Parliament's imminent return

CBC News Posted: Jan 21, 2014 3:52 PM ET Last Updated: Jan 22, 2014 7:13 AM ET

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has spent the past few days in the Middle East.

Once he comes back from the high-profile trip that included his first official visit to Israel, he won't have much time to relax.

MPs will be back in Ottawa on Monday for the return of Parliament after its extended winter break.

After spending a week meeting voters, will NDP leader Tom Mulcair choose to pick up where he left off before the holidays? What will Justin Trudeau's Liberals focus on?

Kady O'Malley will take your questions and comments about Stephen Harper's trip and the return of Parliament on Wednesday at 12 noon ET.

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The House

• Stephen Harper's first official visit to Israel Jan. 18, 2014 6:47 AM This week on The House, guest-host Alison Smith looks ahead to Prime Minister Stephen Harper's official visit to Israel with the new Israeli ambassador to Canada, Rafael Barak, and Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander. Then, Official Opposition leader Tom Mulcair joins us to discuss the how he's getting ready for the next election.

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Harper visits Israel's tourist destinations

Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be treated to some of the marvels of Israel today, including the Hula Valley and the Sea of Galilee.

Harper, fresh off his hero's welcome by Israeli worshippers at the Western Wall, flew north in a military helicopter to take in the splendours of one of the country's most popular and picturesque tourist areas.

After a helicopter carrying Harper and his wife, Laureen, landed at an airport just north of the Sea of Galilee, they were ushered into a waiting SUV and taken to a tour of ancient ruins and to a synagogue.

The chopper had travelled about 150 kilometres and was accompanied by a second helicopter carrying the media entourage and Rafi Barak, Israel's new ambassador to Canada.

The Sea of Galilee attracts Christian pilgrims since the New Testament describes Jesus performing miracles on its shores. The Mount of Beatitudes on the Sea of Galilee's north shore marks the site where Jesus is believed to have given his famous "Sermon on the Mount."

Harper will later head to the Hula Valley where he'll visit a bird sanctuary soon to be renamed in his honour.

The Canadian Jewish community had raised about $5.7 million on Dec. 1 to help refurbish the sanctuary in northern Israel.

Barak told The Canadian Press then that the Israeli government views the wetlands preserve as "our symbolic way to say thanks" to Harper for the public support he's offered their country over the years.

Stephen Harper walks along the shore of the Sea of Galilee as he visits Capernaum, Israel on Wednesday. Harper is visiting Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Harper will end the day in Tel Aviv, where he'll receive an honorary doctorate from the University of Tel Aviv. Harper then travels to Amman, Jordan, where he'll meet with the King of Jordan and visit a Syrian refugee camp.

Harper is on his inaugural visit to the Middle East. He's received an exceptionally warm welcome from Israeli officials, and everyday Israelis too, thanks to his full-throated support of the Jewish state.

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After 8 years as PM, don't write off Stephen Harper: Chris Hall

It will be eight years tomorrow since Stephen Harper's Conservatives won office. And while his chokehold on power may be slipping, he hasn't lost his grip.

Polls suggest Conservative support is down as much as 10 percentage points since the 2011 election, meaning it is well out of majority range.

Watch Chris Hall's documentary on Stephen Harper's eight years in office tonight on The National on CBC TV.

The Senate scandal isn't over. Critics are getting more air time to push their view that Harper is too doctrinaire, too bloody-minded, hell, just too plain mean to last much longer.

And yet those who have worked closely with Harper, who have followed his time in office, insist he isn't going anywhere because being prime minister of Canada is the only job to which he has ever aspired.

"This is somebody who takes governing very, very seriously,'' says Michele Austin, a former Harper adviser and chief of staff to two Conservative cabinet ministers, who now works at the government relations firm Summa Strategies.

"I mean being prime minister is what Stephen was meant for.''

Columnist Paul Wells concurs. He is the author of the recently released history The Longer I'm Prime Minister, which chronicles Harper's years in government.

In Wells' view, everything Harper's done since 2006 is intended to consolidate his hold on power.

"The main point is to endure. Not to last for the sake of lasting… [but] to implement a Conservative change in the political culture of the country," Wells says.

"And if that means doing something Liberal today so that he can do more Conservative things tomorrow, it is fine with him.''

He does make mistakes

It's not that Harper is an especially canny politician. Or that he possesses uncanny political instincts. He makes mistakes. But he seems to learn from them.

Look at his time in government. It's been a slow dance of so many small steps that only Canadians with two left feet can't follow his lead.

"Some governments spend the whole time on the show business side of politics, telling people how well they are doing and making people love them,'' says political strategist Rick Anderson, who played a key role in the nascent days of the Reform Party.

"And I think those kinds of governments get to the end of the road faster than the kind of government Prime Minister Harper is leading, which really does hunker down and do the hard work of governing between elections.''

That hard work, mind you, probably has less to do with governing than it does with positioning, including the constant refining of what it means to be a Conservative, the relentless raising of funds and the constant reshaping of Harper's own image to keep his hold on power.

Canadians, many of them Conservative supporters, take part in an Anti-Coalition rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in December 2008, in the biggest parliamentary crisis in the early Harper years. (Sean Kilpatrick / Canadian Press)

Consider that he's ruled out any re-opening of the abortion debate so long as he is prime minister, over the repeated objections of social conservatives inside his party and his own caucus.

Remember December 2008 when, in the midst of a global economic meltdown, Harper chose the blatantly partisan route of stripping political parties of public subsidies rather than increasing government spending to create jobs.

The next day the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition was born. Harper faced certain defeat, forcing him to go cap in hand to the governor general to prorogue Parliament to allow him the time to attack the coalition.

When the sitting resumed, he'd not only jettisoned the financing change, but brought in billions of dollars in stimulus spending to buy the support of the Liberals.

Closed chapters

Throughout these eight years, Harper has repeatedly tilted to the unexpected.

He invested billions of taxpayers' money to keep General Motors alive, all the while insisting it's not the job of government to pick winners and losers.

He recognized the Quebecois as a nation "within a united Canada," burying a motion by then Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe that had neglected those last four words.

He stood in the Commons to deliver an historic apology to those sent to Indian residential schools. And he reversed his pledge not to tax income trusts.

Anderson says those measures were not part of Harper's DNA, and not part of the Reform-based Conservative platform.

"These are not necessarily the things that you would have predicted 10 years earlier that Prime Minister Harper would be doing, but he adapted," Anderson argues.

"He understood that people wanted them done, he wanted those chapters closed and to move forward."

So what now?

Now, Wells predicts, Harper is entering "a period of considerable turbulence" leading up to the next election campaign in 2015.

"Few prime ministers have lasted longer than nine years. And there's reason for that, people just get tired, they decide it is time for a change, internal dissent."

Is this prime minister, eight years in office and halfway through his first majority government, capable of reinventing the Conservative brand?

The answer is a resounding "maybe," if you consider returning to the themes that Harper first laid out in 2006 as change.

"There's no doubt the last year was challenging with the Senate scandal,'' says Conservative MP Michael Chong. The point now has to be "renewed focus on the economy. Everything else is secondary.''

"I think the goal over the next two years is to win in 2015, to allow him to continue with the original plan of economic growth and reducing spending,'' says Michele Austin. ''I think that this pragmatic approach to government, these small steps are allowing him to hold on to power.''

And then there's the question of Harper's own future.

Stephen Harper then and now, in late 2006, just before the election that leapt his party past the Liberals, and (right) in December 2013, fending off opposition questions about the Senate scandal. (Reuters)

The Conservative brand is inextricably tied to Harper's. Insiders say he's the reason the Conservatives racked up three straight election wins, increasing their support each time.

"I think every successful leader adapts to obstacles thrown in their way,'' says Conservative MP John Williamson, who also spent time as Harper's director of communications.

"There have been some distractions when you look back at 2013, but when you look at our economic record and how things are falling into place for 2015 in terms of the budget, tax relief and the economy, we are on track to be very competitive.''

Paul Wells isn't ruling anything out either. He compares Harper to other long-serving prime ministers such as Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien, neither of whom left office in defeat. He predicts Harper won't either.

"Every six months since he became the Canadian Alliance leader someone has written him off," Wells says.

"And there's all these premature autopsies and he keeps on forgetting to show up to the funeral.''

In other words, he will stay as long as he can win. He will leave if, and only if, it's clear he can't.

Harper's grip might be slipping. But he'll never make the mistake of letting go.

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Kathy Dunderdale resignation: Watch it live

Kathy Dunderdale will step down today as the 10th premier of Canada's 10th province, in a move that is shaking up Newfoundland and Labrador's governing Progressive Conservatives.

Dunderdale is meeting with members of the Tory caucus at Confederation Building in St. John's on Wednesday, and will speak publicly for the first time about her decision to resign.

Dunderdale made the decision while on vacation in Florida, and on the heels of a political storm sparked by the defection of former caucus chair Paul Lane, who on Monday crossed the floor to join the Liberals.

But political insiders say Dunderdale's resignation had long been in the cards, particularly when she could not make a fast rebound from polling results last year that put the governing Tories in third place.

"This has been mounting for a while. The writing has been on the wall, quite frankly," said Paul Oram, a former provincial health minister who has been vocal for weeks about a perceived need for a change at the top.

Communications cited as key problem

Oram said many Tories hold Dunderdale, who was sworn in as premier on Dec. 3, 2010, in high regard, although there have been mounting frustrations with an often abrupt communications style.

"Kathy's biggest issue has always been that the communications part of her mandate has never been received well," Oram said.

"You can be the best leader in the world but the reality is that if the people are not accepting you as leader, and you just can't resonate with the people, then you can't be leader of the party and leader of the province."

Finance Minister Tom Marshall is set to become interim premier. Marshall, who represents the Corner Brook district of Humber East, has already announced he will retire at the next election.

The date of that election is now in flux, as well.

Fixed-date legislation has the vote set for October 2015, although it is likely to be held earlier if the PCs select a new leader in the next few months. Provincial law dictates that a new premier must go to the polls within 12 months of being sworn in.

Author of her own misfortune: NDP

Lorraine Michael, leader of Newfoundland and Labrador's New Democrats, said Dunderdale's lack of popularity with voters was her own doing.

Michael told CBC News that Dunderdale was too aggressive with pushing her political agenda, including Bill 29, a law that substantially reduced the amount of information that government is allowed to release to the public.

"The policies that she's been pushing, such as Bill 29, Muskrat Falls, the no brooking of any opposition whatsoever, poo-pooing everything — I think she brought this on herself," Michael said.

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