Promised urban turf war fizzles as Liberals cruise to victory

The electoral turf war in Trinity–Spadina was billed as a byelection battle for the ages.

But when it finally came time to count the ballots in the riding vacated by former New Democrat MP turned mayoral candidate Olivia Chow, it wasn't even close.

After only two polls in, Toronto city councillor turned Liberal challenger Adam Vaughan took the lead over NDP heir apparent Joe Cressy, and never looked back.   

By the end of the night, Vaughan's share of the vote seemed to have settled at just over 50 per cent — nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Cressy — and when he finally took the stage at his victory celebrations, a visibly delighted Justin Trudeau was on hand to congratulate him.

There were still more euphoric Liberal faces in the crowd at his soon-to-be-caucus colleague Arnold Chan's victory party in Scarborough–Agincourt.

After all, Chan didn't just hang onto the seat that maverick former MP Jim Karygiannis held for decades.

He very nearly doubled Karygiannis' 2011 margin of victory, although given the downright moribund turnout across the board, it's likely unwise to draw any sweeping conclusions based on data-crunching comparisons alone.  

Still, it seems noteworthy that the closest race turned out to be the fight for Fort McMurray–Athabasca, a riding traditionally viewed as near the heart of the Tory heartland, nestled deep in oilsands country.

In 2011, voters sent Conservative MP Brian Jean back to Ottawa with just over 70 per cent of the vote, with the New Democrat and Liberal candidates coming in a distant second and third, respectively, with 13 and 10 per cent, respectively.

This time around, Conservative standard-bearer David Yurdiga, won with just under 47 per cent of the vote. Hot — or, at least, warm — on his heels, however, was Liberal Kyle Harrietha, who wound up a not nearly so distant second at just under 36 per cent. The New Democrats, meanwhile, dropped to 11 per cent.

As was the case in Ontario, the lacklustre turnout makes it difficult to say for sure whether the unexpectedly feisty performance at the polls by the Liberals was a one-off anomaly, or a portent of campaigns to come. 

Meanwhile, any Conservatives rattled by a seeming resurgence of red in Alberta can find solace in the numbers from Macleod, where John Barlow cruised to victory with nearly 70 per cent support.

Even so, the Liberals can take heart in their 17 per cent showing, which is a 13 percentage point jump from 2011, when they pulled in less than 4 per cent of the total vote.

And at the very least, both the Conservatives and Liberals can comfort themselves with the fact that they aren't the New Democrats, for whom this latest batch of byelections can best be described as a series of unfortunate events.

Not only did they give up Trinity-Spadina, but they didn't even place second in any of the other three ridings up for grabs. (In Macleod, they came in fourth, behind the Greens.)

For a party that has billed itself as the only serious choice for opponents of the current government, it will be hard to spin those results as anything other than a disappointment — one that could very well demoralize the party even as it emboldens Team Trudeau.

By that reckoning, the New Democrats may have lost more than just a seat in the House of Commons on Monday night. They may have lost — albeit maybe only temporarily — their footing on the road to 2015. 

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Fewer women named by Conservatives to federal boards

Fewer women under the Conservative government are in leadership roles at Crown corporations and at federal boards and agencies compared to when the Liberals were the governing party, newly tabulated statistics show.

Numbers compiled by the federal Liberals and New Democrats show Canada has fewer women running government agencies and Crown corporations, sitting on boards and working in management roles than under the previous Liberal government, which hit 37 per cent in 2005.

The parties released the numbers – based on tallies released by the federal government – after the governing Conservatives put out a series of recommendations last week aimed at encouraging private sector companies to put more women on their own boards.

Status of Women Minister Kellie Leitch told reporters at the time that the government is doing "outstandingly well."

"We do way better than corporate Canada: 31 per cent of governor-in-council appointments are women right now and we're aspiring higher," she said last Thursday, referring to federal government appointments to heads of agencies, CEOs of Crown corporations and members of quasi-judicial tribunals.

"Both for the public sector and the private sector, the short- and long-term goal over five years is 30 per cent. The Government of Canada has surpassed that; the long-term goal was gender parity."

The 31 per cent Leitch referred to includes federal deputy ministers and associate deputy ministers promoted to the most senior posts in the civil service. Breaking out the appointments made to Crown corporation boards and executive roles lowers the rate.

Women hold less than one-third of senior roles

Of 43 Crown corporations, only 11 women in the past five years have been appointed to lead them — and only six are currently led by women.

Only 22.6 per cent of director positions on the boards of Crown corporations are filled by women, according to the Liberal Party's calculation, and women occupy only 31.6 per cent of senior management positions. That's 107 out of 473 directorships and 165 out of 522 senior managers.

The NDP included three additional agencies, so the totals provided by the two parties vary slightly. 

The numbers given to the NDP by each Crown corporation also vary slightly from the totals provided by the Conservatives to CBC News, which came through Status of Women Canada. 

New Democrat MP Niki Ashton supports gender quotas for federally appointed boards. (Liam Richards/Canadian Press)

The New Democrats calculated the number of women in Crown corporation director roles at 27 per cent, with 30.3 per cent of senior management roles filled by women as of April 2014. That's 191 women among 631 senior managers and 119 female directors out of 440 board appointments.

The NDP numbers are based on information provided by the Conservatives in response to an Order Paper Question tabled by the NDP's status of women critic, Niki Ashton. The Liberals based their numbers on that response, as well as on the government's appointments website. 

Ashton said the numbers show a disconnect between what Leitch said last week when she released the recommendations for corporate Canada.

"What it really speaks to is the lack of leadership from this government. We hear a lot of rhetoric on participation at the board level and at leadership levels, and the government could be making a real statement by setting the bar high and appointing women to Crown corporation boards and supporting the appointments of heads of Crown corporations to meet the goal of 50 per cent," Ashton said in an interview with CBC News.

'This is not progress'

Ashton said she supports quotas to get gender parity on federally appointed boards.

"Nobody is saying that there aren't enough qualified women out there. In fact, the statistics in the report itself indicate that women are graduating at higher levels, you have more women than we've ever had graduating with MBAs and backgrounds in management fields.... This is not about a lack of merit or a lack of qualified women. This is about a lack of leadership," Ashton said.

Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett, chair of the national Liberal women's caucus, said the government is rightfully trying to encourage the private sector to increase the number of women on its boards, but that federal appointments are going backwards.

"This is not progress," she said in an interview with CBC News.

"Compared to the Liberal record, these are going down."

Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett says the number of women appointed to federal leadership roles is decreasing. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

Bennett said it doesn't ring true to argue the government can't find any qualified women.

"I would like to hear the government to say at least we've got to do better ... From 35 per cent [under the Liberals in 2005] to 22 per cent is clearly in the wrong direction and we should absolutely be aiming to parity when women are 47 per cent of the workforce," she said.

"I don't think it should be a partisan issue, but I do think that the government has no credibility when they use words like 'outstandingly well' for what's ended up a reduction in the numbers."

'Constantly aspiring for higher'

A spokesman for Leitch said the varying term-lengths of governor-in-council appointments can have an impact on how often the government can change the composition of boards.

The Conservatives have been in office for more than eight years.

"The trend has been steady over the last few years and we are constantly aspiring for higher," Leitch spokesman Andrew McGrath said in an email to CBC News.

"As of 2013, 29 [per cent] of Crown corporation appointees were women; and nearly 40 [per cent] of deputy ministers and associate deputy ministers in federal departments were women."

McGrath said women held more than 55 per cent of federal public service jobs in 2013, with 46 per cent of public service executive jobs held by women. McGrath said the number of women in executive jobs is nearly triple what it was under the federal Liberals and the number of women in federal public service jobs is up 13 percentage points from the 1980s.

Public service jobs and promotions are awarded by senior civil servants and not by cabinet ministers.

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For Kathleen Wynne, it's time to get real about election promises: Robert Fisher

When people outside Queen's Park talk of Premier Kathleen Wynne, they often use the word "real" to describe her.

The political types use the word "authentic." Either way, it is a true compliment.

After all, it was in many ways what got Wynne, and her party, through a difficult provincial election campaign.

Despite NDP leader Andrea Horwath's bold pronouncement last week that people "voted out of fear (of PC leader Tim Hudak) and not for positive (NDP) change," Wynne's personality clearly connected with voters who were prepared to give the Liberals a "second chance" — and if not forget the gas plant scandal and other indiscretions, at least, for the time being, forgive the missteps.

Now, with MPPs returning to the Legislature for a rare, albeit short time of summer in the city, the words "authentic" and "real" must now apply to Wynne's agenda.

A key to that is the Liberal budget – rejected by Horwath in order to force the election in the first place, which left the NDP in third.

Wynne's ambitious blueprint for the province will be re-introduced by Finance Minister Charles Sousa next Monday.

It is guaranteed passage because of the government's majority. But the pressure will be on Wynne to quickly become the activist centrist premier.

Heeding sage advice

"I promise you I will not let you down."

Wynne uttered those nine very important words last week as she was sworn in along with her new, though mostly recycled, cabinet.

But of the 27 ministers, the words were perhaps most significant to veteran Jim Bradley (MPP for St. Catharines). While he's Wynne's new Minister without Portfolio, he may, shall we say, have a lot of sage advice.

The 37-year-veteran, a holdover from the short-lived David Peterson era, knows all too well the pitfalls of majority arrogance: of promises made – and promises not kept – to "earn the trust of Ontarians every single day," as Peterson said on the night of his majority victory in 1987. These words quickly faded from his political vocabulary.

There is the famous story of Peterson asking Bradley in a cabinet meeting what he thought of the government's plan to spend millions of dollars on an opera house for Toronto.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath's rejection of the Liberals' budget precipitated the 2014 provincial election, which gave Kathleen Wynne a majority. (Patrick Morrell/CBC)

Bradley is said to have responded, "It won't play well at the Mansion House" – a reference to a well-known St. Catharines watering hole for Brock University students and local residents.

Peterson quipped in response: "Bradley, you're a cultural pygmy."

Peterson's long gone from the halls of Queen's Park, while Bradley just won his 11th provincial election.

Ensuring that progress is made

Wynne would do well to heed Bradley's opinions.

They could mean the difference between staying on the government benches (in the Legislature) and moving the "two sword lengths" away to the opposition benches, as the Liberals did when they lost in 1990.

The "real" part of the Wynne agenda will emerge quickly and that's the bad news – the tough stuff, if you will – that the Liberals must accomplish and get out of the way in the first two years of their four-year mandate (with years three and four all about getting re-elected).

The premier has to keep her promises or, at the very least, demonstrate that they're on the government's radar and progress is being made.

And that means work on Wynne's so-called "made in Ontario" pension plan – though there is concern that the premier chose a relative rookie in Scarborough MPP Mitzie Hunter to push the idea forward as the new Associate Minister of Finance.

Wynne says a lot of Ontarians need a provincial pension plan and if so, she and her government must show that it is in fact a priority for them, too.

'Difficult choices'

Then, there's the deficit. At just under $12 billion in round numbers, the commitment is to balance the books by 2017-2018.

Former health minister and now head of the Treasury Board Deb Matthews has been charged with finding balance – a balance that is likely to require some austerity by the Liberals that wasn't spelled out in the election or has been defined since the vote.

Wynne herself talks of "some difficult choices" ahead, which is likely code for cuts – not the kind proposed in the PCs' "Million Jobs Plan," but cuts nonetheless.

And tied to that is a huge and politically potentially dangerous job of negotiating new contracts with the public sector and teacher unions, of telling them the cupboard is bare and there is no money for wage increases.

For teachers who believe they've done their bit for the Liberals, it will be a bitter pill to swallow, and has already raised the prospect of a movie Ontario's seen before: teacher work-to-rule campaigns or — in the extreme, though possible — picket lines at schools.

But — and this is something the unions will have to keep in mind — Wynne begins her four years of majority government this week with a huge amount of political capital, with the added pressure of very difficult decisions and very high expectations.

Wynne wanted a mandate to govern. She campaigned from one end of the province to the other with what she said was "a plan," and now she must make it reality.

And if she doesn't at least start to move the yardsticks on the issues facing the province and make good on her promises, one wonders what the patrons at the Mansion House will be telling Jim Bradley about this Liberal government.

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Tim Hudak bows out as leader of Ontario Tories today

Tim Hudak is set to bow out as the leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Wednesday after five years on the job.

Weeks ago, he hoped that come Canada Day, he would be leading the provincial government. Instead, he finds himself clearing the way for someone else to lead the Opposition — a job that usually doubles as an audition for the position premier.

With the writing on the wall, Hudak was quick to declare his intentions on the night of the June 12 Ontario election: he would be stepping down as leader.

Supporters of the Ontario PC Party are seen watching results come in on the night of the June 12 election in Grimsby, Ont. The Tories lost seats in the election and failed to form the government. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)

"I will lead our party and caucus only until that new leader is selected," Hudak said.

The PCs kicked that process into high gear pretty quickly.

On the Monday after the election, Hudak emerged from a lengthy caucus meeting to say there would be a new leader in the "near future." By mid-week, he gave formal notice that he would be stepping down as leader on July 2.

The Canadian Press reported that the Tories will be choosing an interim leader Wednesday.

Early years in Fort Erie

The 46-year-old Tory veteran plans to stay on as the MPP for Niagara West-Glanbrook, a riding that lies near where he was born and raised.

Hudak grew up in Fort Erie, Ont., a border town on the opposite side of the Peace Bridge from Buffalo, New York.

Hudak led the Ontario Progressive Conservatives through two provincial elections during his time as leader. The photo above was taken while the PC leader made a campaign stop in Ottawa in September 2011. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

The son of a principal and a school teacher would go on to earn two degrees — an undergraduate degree from Western University and a Master's degree in economics from the University of Washington. In his 20s, he would work as a customs officer on the bridge in his hometown.

Hudak was a few months shy of his 28th birthday when he was elected MPP for Niagara South on June 8, 1995. That was the election that brought Mike Harris to power, as the Tories won their first of two straight majorities.

New opportunities

Hudak's stock rose during the Harris years, as he went from being a parliamentary assistant to the minister of health to becoming a full-fledged cabinet minister.

Hudak, left, is seen sitting with his wife, Deb Hutton, and daughters six-year-old Miller and seven-week-old Maitland during a campaign stop at a Tim Hortons franchise in Toronto on May 17, 2014. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)

In October 2002, he married Deb Hutton, a senior aide to Harris. The couple have two daughters — Miller, who will turn seven this fall, and Maitland, who was born just three months ahead of the June 12 election.

Hudak stayed in cabinet when Ernie Eves took the reins of the party.

When the Liberals won a majority of their own in the fall of 2003, the Tories were pushed back into opposition.

Hudak held several cabinet positions in the PC governments led by Mike Harris and Ernie Eves. The photo above was taken in June 2001, when Hudak was Ontario's tourism, culture and recreation minister. He is seen posing with Richard Branson after a Virgin Atlantic flight touched down in Toronto. (Aaron Harris/Canadian Press)

Next it would be John Tory's turn to lead the Ontario PC Party. His tenure as leader ended as Hudak's would — after an election that resulted in a Liberal majority.

When Tory failed to lead the PCs to victory in the October 2007 provincial election, he found himself on the ropes and without a seat in the legislature. A subsequent defeat in a byelection sealed his fate.

His departure opened the door for Hudak to take his shot.

Taking the reins

With the backing of some of his fellow Harris-era veterans, Hudak won the Ontario PC leadership on June 27, 2009. The former premier was sitting in the front row as Hudak delivered his victory speech that day.

Hudak delivering his victory speech after he was elected as the leader of the Ontario PC Party in June 2009. (CBC)

In 2011, the Liberals seemed vulnerable to the Tories, but when election night rolled around that year, the Opposition didn't get the result it had hoped for.

Then-premier Dalton McGuinty's government was reduced to a minority, with the Liberals falling one seat short of a majority.

Hudak conceded defeat that night but said the results showed that Ontarians weren't entirely happy with the governing party.

"My friends, it is very clear the people of Ontario have put Dalton McGuinty on a very short leash," he said.

Sure enough, McGuinty would leave his leadership role before Hudak, in part because of a lingering scandal about the Liberal government's decision to scrap a pair of power plants.

Hudak was seen as the winner in the leaders debate with Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, right, but that victory was not enough to win him the election. (Frank Gunn/Canadian Press)

But the PC leader would face a new opponent in Kathleen Wynne, who took control of the Ontario Liberals last year and led them to victory at the polls last month.

When Hudak walked on stage on election night, nearly three weeks ago, he had a similar message for Wynne as he had for McGuinty more than two years earlier.

"Nobody should mistake this result as an endorsement of the status quo," Hudak said. "Kathleen Wynne promised very different behaviour from what we've seen these past 11 years. She will be held accountable if she does not deliver on that change."

In any case, it won't be Hudak in the driver's seat as the Opposition takes up that task over the next four years.

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Rob Ford to be interviewed by CBC today

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford will sit down early this afternoon with CBC's Dwight Drummond in a one-on-one interview that will be streamed live on CBC.ca today.

Ford's office has scheduled the interview for 12:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, during the lunch break of the city's executive committee.

Portions of the interview will be played throughout the afternoon on CBC Radio One, CBC News Network and starting at 5 p.m. on CBC-TV in Toronto.

The interview comes two days after Ford's public apology for his behaviour that followed a two-month absence from his job while he received treatment for alcohol and drug abuse at a rehabilitation facility in Muskoka.

In his statement Monday, read at an invitation-only news conference, Ford said he felt "ashamed, embarrassed and humiliated" by his behaviour and vowed to make an "unwavering" commitment to "clean living."  

Toward the end of his statement, Ford touted his accomplishments in office and promised to continue his fight to control costs at city hall by stopping the "gravy train."

Ford — who is seeking re-election on Oct. 27 — did not take questions after his statement. But for Wednesday, Ford's office has scheduled sit-down interviews with CBC and other media outlets.

The mayor appeared at a handful of Canada Day celebrations on Tuesday, where he was greeted by some supporters and jeered by a few hecklers.

Ford's return to work and apology come after a year of scandal surrounding his office. It began in the spring of 2013, when reporters were offered for sale a video that shows the mayor smoking what appears to be crack cocaine. At the time, Ford denied both using the drug and the existence of the tape.

The story was picked up around the world. Ford was frequently mocked by comedians on late-night television.

Last fall, police announced they had recovered a video file that was consistent with what the media had reported. Within days, Ford admitted that he had smoked crack cocaine, an event he believed had occurred while in one of his "drunken stupors."

His trip to rehab did not come for another six months after that, as Ford ignored calls to step down and made further apologies as other videos emerged showing him acting strangely and in one case making lewd comments about Coun. Karen Stintz.

Ford is seeking re-election against a field of opponents that includes:

• Stintz.
• Former NDP MP Olivia Chow.
• Former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader John Tory.
• Former city councillor David Soknacki.

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Liberals win Toronto ridings, Conservatives hold Alberta in byelections

The Liberals nabbed one Toronto riding from the New Democrats and held on to another in federal byelections Monday night, while the Conservatives retained two seats in Alberta.

As was expected in Alberta, Conservative candidates John Barlow and David Yurdiga won in Macleod and Fort McMurray-Athabasca, respectively.

It was a good day for the Liberals and leader Justin Trudeau. The party ran Arnold Chan, a former lawyer and corporate manager, in the densely Chinese-populated Scarborough-Agincourt riding, where he held on to the seat that was for 25 years represented by Jim Karygiannis.

Perhaps the bigger story, however, was new Liberal candidate Adam Vaughan's victory in the hotly contested race against New Democrat Joe Cressy for Trinity-Spadina. The riding had been held by former NDP MP Olivia Chow, who is now running to be mayor of the city.

"Democracy works when we all work with hope and hard work," Vaughan said in his victory speech in Toronto, with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at his side and surrounded by young Liberal campaigners in red shirts.

"You don't win elections, you don't build parties, and you don't change governments without bringing new people to the conversation — the Liberals have always been very, very good at this," Vaughan added.

NDP strategist Marit Stiles said she saw the turnover to the Liberals less as a rejection of the New Democrats than as a testament to a star candidate.

"It's been a long-held NDP riding, certainly. Olivia Chow had it for years. But previously it was a Liberal riding," Stiles said. "We had a very high name-recognition candidate in the Liberals with Adam Vaughan, and Joe Cressy was a very exciting new candidate, but a new candidate. I think it would have been difficult to hold that seat with somebody with that kind of name recognition."

'Shot in the arm'

Although the two Alberta ridings of Fort McMurray-Athabasca and Macleod were perceived as virtual locks for the Conservatives, political strategists were looking closely at vote percentages to for any sign of momentum by the Liberals.

Trudeau campaigned three times in the oilsands heartland to back Liberal candidate Kyle Harrietha in Fort McMurray-Athabasca.

The Conservatives won by healthy margins in Alberta in 2011, capturing 72 per cent in Fort McMurray-Athabasca and 77 per cent in Macleod. Initial numbers from Elections Canada showed a much closer race this time in Fort McMurray, with Yurgida besting Liberal candidate Kyle Harrietha by roughly 12 percentage points. 

Pollster Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research, said earlier a drop in support could spell trouble for the Conservatives.

Conservative candidate John Barlow celebrates his victory in the federal by-election in the Macleod riding in High River, Alta., Monday, June 30, 2014. (Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press)

"It would suggest a significant proportion are not happy and want to send a message to Harper," Nanos told CBC's Power & Politics host Rosemary Barton. If the ballot results don't show a significant vote split, Nanos added, "the Conservatives have to be nervous."

In the southern part of the province, former newspaper editor Barlow captured about 69 per cent of the vote — more than 50 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Liberal Dustin Fuller.

"This is the culmination of eight months of hard work and it definitely feels worthwhile today," Barlow said in a victory speech that came just 30 minutes after the polls closed.

"What this really came down to was passion and how hard we worked. The message we had is Macleod is not going to be forgotten. We cannot take Macleod for granted."​

Still, even in Macleod, the Tory vote share was down about 10 points from 2011 while the Liberal share almost quadrupled.

Low turnout blamed on bad timing

Voter turnout was very low, according to Elections Canada projections, making it difficult to draw valid conclusions from the data. Turnout was below 15 per cent in Fort McMurray-Athabasca, and about 18 per cent in Macleod. Scarborough-Agincourt had only about 27 per cent of registered voters show at the polls, and Trinity-Spadina only had a 21 per cent voter turnout.

Liberal Arnold Chan was elected in the Toronto riding of Scarborough-Agincourt in a federal byelection Monday. (Chantal Da Silva-CBC/Radio Canada)

The byelections fell between a weekend and the Canada Day holiday. Some political observers accused the Harper Conservatives of choosing the date in order to engineer a low voter turnout.

Barry Kay, a political science professor with Wilfrid Laurier University, said turnout in byelections is typically 10 to 15 points lower than the turnout in a general election. He said that governing parties tend to suffer more losses in byelections as voters use the occasion to show their dismay at the polls without having to worry about changing the seat of power.

Vaughan's victory in Trinity-Spadina is a coup for the Liberals, who are keen to sell themselves as a reinvigorated party under Trudeau's stewardship. Public opinion surveys show more Canadians giving popular support to the Liberals than the Conservatives, followed by the New Democrats in third place.

Since 1972, every time the Liberals won Trinity-Spadina they have gone on to form government; every time the NDP took the riding, the Conservatives have taken power.

Marcel Wieder, a Liberal strategist and CEO of Aurora Strategy Group in Toronto, called the Vaughan win "the shot in the arm" that Trudeau's party needed, especially coming up to an election year.

The momentum could help the Liberals in their quest to reestablish themselves as the most viable alternative to the Conservatives. 

"If I was Justin Trudeau, I would be feeling great this evening. If I was [federal NDP Leader] Tom Mulcair, I'd be heading back to the drawing board," Wieder said.

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Promised urban turf war fizzles as Liberals cruise to victory

The electoral turf war in Trinity–Spadina was billed as a byelection battle for the ages.

But when it finally came time to count the ballots in the riding vacated by former New Democrat MP turned mayoral candidate Olivia Chow, it wasn't even close.

After only two polls in, Toronto city councillor turned Liberal challenger Adam Vaughan took the lead over NDP heir apparent Joe Cressy, and never looked back.   

By the end of the night, Vaughan's margin of victory seemed to have settled at just over 50 per cent — nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Cressy — and when he finally took the stage at his victory celebrations, a visibly delighted Justin Trudeau was on hand to congratulate him.

There were still more euphoric Liberal faces in the crowd at his soon-to-be-caucus colleague Arnold Chan's victory party in Scarborough–Agincourt.

After all, Chan didn't just hang onto the seat that maverick former MP Jim Karygiannis held for decades.

He very nearly doubled Karygiannis' 2011 margin of victory, although given the downright moribund turnout across the board, it's likely unwise to draw any sweeping conclusions based on data-crunching comparisons alone.  

Still, it seems noteworthy that the closest race turned out to be the fight for Fort McMurray–Athabasca, a riding traditionally viewed as near the heart of the Tory heartland, nestled deep in oilsands country.

In 2011, voters sent Conservative MP Brian Jean back to Ottawa with just over 70 per cent of the vote, with the New Democrat and Liberal candidates coming in a distant second and third, respectively, with 13 and 10 per cent, respectively.

This time around, Conservative standard-bearer David Yurdiga, won with just under 47 per cent of the vote. Hot — or, at least, warm — on his heels, however, was Liberal Kyle Harrietha, who wound up a not nearly so distant second at just under 36 per cent. The New Democrats, meanwhile, dropped to 11 per cent.

As was the case in Ontario, the lacklustre turnout makes it difficult to say for sure whether the unexpectedly feisty performance at the polls by the Liberals was a one-off anomaly, or a portent of campaigns to come. 

Meanwhile, any Conservatives rattled by a seeming resurgence of red in Alberta can find solace in the numbers from Macleod, where John Barlow cruised to victory with nearly 70 per cent support.

Even so, the Liberals can take heart in their 17 per cent showing, which is a 13 percentage point jump from 2011, when they pulled in less than 4 per cent of the total vote.

And at the very least, both the Conservatives and Liberals can comfort themselves with the fact that they aren't the New Democrats, for whom this latest batch of byelections can best be described as a series of unfortunate events.

Not only did they give up Trinity-Spadina, but they didn't even place second in any of the other three ridings up for grabs. (In Macleod, they came in fourth, behind the Greens.)

For a party that has billed itself as the only serious choice for opponents of the current government, it will be hard to spin those results as anything other than a disappointment — one that could very well demoralize the party even as it emboldens Team Trudeau.

By that reckoning, the New Democrats may have lost more than just a seat in the House of Commons on Monday night. They may have lost — albeit maybe only temporarily — their footing on the road to 2015. 

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What Britain could learn from Canada about immigration

It's Dominion Day, the time we bust out the clichés over what makes Canada so great.

We Canadians love to define ourselves by what we're not, and spending the better part of a year in a truly world-class city (London) surrounded by a union having an identity crisis (the U.K.) has certainly sharpened my appreciation for what makes Canada tick.

One of the best things about being a Canadian is the ability to be culturally schizophrenic. In my case, having grown up in an English household, and having been steered into French immersion by my father (once an ardent Trudeau man, now rehabilitated), my Canadian identity has always included our French heritage. And I'm the better for it.

But I'm also a Brit. My mum was born and raised in west London and immigrated to Canada just as Carnaby Street was set to swing. In many ways it feels like home, but in others, it feels like another planet.

Yes, Canada and the United Kingdom share the same style of government and systems of law, the same head of state and many cultural touchstones. But there are differences.

Some of these differences are fun. Reading the British press, for example, is like being in the lunatic asylum after spending years in the Canadian palliative care ward.

We share a language, but the terminology will trip you up if you're not careful. For example, never tell someone you like their pants over here. They'll punch you in the bollocks (which, incidentally, are housed in your "pants," i.e. underwear).
While we're at it, the fanny is the front, not the back; eggplant is aubergine; and a fall is something you take, not the season of autumn.

On the political front, there are some similarities. For example, no one is allowed to discuss reform of the health care system, preferring instead to punt the discussion until after it craters into the bankrupt ground.

United in opposition

As with Canada, there's also no serious debate here about immigration because everyone is united in a common position. But unlike Canada, everyone here is against it, or at least for restricting it to low levels.

Nigel Farage, leader of UK Independence Party. Farage's anti-immigration party out-polled Cameron's Conservative Party and the Labour Party in May elections for the European Parliament. (Sang Tan/Associated Press)

Hence the cross-party fear of Polish plumbers, Spanish service staff, Romanian labourers and Canadian managers. Okay, we Canadians aren't in the crosshairs, but we do run the post and the bank here, so our time will surely come.

The resistance to immigration and immigrants stems from something Canada has in spades, and of which Britain has very little: distance.

When a country like Albania or Romania is accepted into the European Union, their citizens are eligible to live and work in Britain virtually straight away. Cue the Nigel Fa–rage. (Farage led his nationalist, anti-immigration UK Independence Party to the strongest national showing in recent European Parliament elections.)

Leave aside the fact the British economy needs the bodies or that new arrivals claim fewer benefits than native-born Brits because they came here with the express purpose of, you know, working. No, every political leader will spend the run-up to next year's general election channelling their inner Enoch Powell.

As with many things in the United Kingdom, there is a split between London and the rest of the country. London, which bustles with the industry, culture and cuisine of immigrants, is understandably on board with new arrivals. But out there in the rest of the country, the places where the economy isn't recovering, there is a desire to draw the bridge and keep England for Englanders.

And where separatism in Canada is at such an ebb the Bloc Québécois just selected a complete non-entity to lead it, here in the United Kingdom, Scotland is preparing a referendum on its more than 300-year-old political union with  England, and the result is very much in question. Add to that the broader debate about the U.K.'s role in the funhouse of the European Union, and you have a country that could be facing radically different circumstances in just two years.

Cameron should look to Harper

Yes, some of the political angst over Europe has to do with intrusive regulation and the loss of national sovereignty, but the majority of it has to do with the free movement of people and the mythical masses of the unwashed that are supposedly coming to threaten Britain's culture and identity. Neutralizing the fear of the outsider would put Britain on much surer footing.

The David Cameron-led Conservatives could do worse than to look over and see how the Harper government has reached out to immigrant communities. Hard-working, family-oriented and fiercely proud of their new land, these communities should be a natural constituency. Cameron should stare down the little Englanders in his party and make the case for immigration and the economy.

I wouldn't change much about my mother's country, but its attitude to immigrants would certainly be one. In this, it needs to become more Canadian.

Andrew MacDougall is a former director of communications to Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He is now the senior executive consultant at MSLGROUP London. Follow him @agmacdougall

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Parliament Hill flag can be yours - if you'll wait 42 years

Looking for the ultimate flag for Canada Day?

The Peace Tower flag could be all yours. Any Canadian living in the country can order one of the flags that fly at the highest point on Parliament Hill.

By the numbers

• 7,900 Peace Tower and West/East Block flags given out since 1994.
• 8,363 people on the waiting list for a Peace Tower flag.
• 6,274 people on the waiting list for a West/East Block flag.
• 281 people received a Peace Tower flag last year.
• 2.3 metres by 4.6 metres are the dimensions of the Peace Tower flag.

But you won't receive it in time for this year's July 1st celebrations — or, frankly, anytime soon.

If you put your name on the federal government's waiting list, it would be 2056 by the time you receive the coveted parcel in the mail.

The waiting list is 42 years for a piece of the Peace Tower.

The backlog has grown significantly over the past 20 years and the waiting list keeps getting longer.

Initiative launched in 1994

Jean Chretien's Liberal government started the initiative in 1994. It was a contentious time in Canada's history, as Quebec geared up for a referendum. At that point, the flag was changed once a week.

Pauline Girard received her flag in 2003, nearly 10 years after she put her name on the waiting list. According to the accompanying documentation, it was flown from the Peace Tower on July 11, 2002. (CBC)

But four years later, the government decided a new flag should be raised five days a week due to high demand, according to the Department of Public Works.

The West and East Block flags are also changed regularly, although not on a daily basis. Those flags are available to the public as well, with a slightly less staggering wait time of 31 years.

Public Works and Government Services Canada says it doesn't track the cost to distribute the free Peace Tower and West/East Block flags.

'Every time is like the first time'

Every weekday morning before 9 a.m., maintenance worker Robert Labonté carries a new flag, measuring 2.3 metres by 4.6 metres, to the top of the Peace Tower.

"It's a well-kept secret," Labonté said. "I get to deliver a piece of Canada to people."

After Labonté raises the flag more than 100 metres high, he carts off yesterday's flag down the Peace Tower stairs.

Parliament Hill maintenance worker Robert Labonté prepares to ascend the stairs of the Peace Tower with a fresh flag. (CBC)

As he descends the tower, Labonté sings a little celebration tune: O Canada. It's become a daily tradition for him.

"I'm filled with pride … every time is like the first time," Labonté said.

At the end of the week, the flags are shipped across the country. There are currently 8,363 Canadians waiting for a Peace Tower flag.

Labonté is actually one of those people. He signed up a few years ago.

"I'm no different than anybody else," Labonté said. "I got to put my name on the list and wait."

'It's almost like you want to wrap yourself in it'

Pauline Girard is the matriarch of her family. She's the eldest of five siblings.

So when she first heard about the federal government's initiative to give out Peace Tower flags 20 years ago, she immediately signed herself up and urged the rest of her family to put their names on the list.

Nearly 10 years later, in 2003, Girard received a flag in the mail. The letter indicated that it had flown on the Peace Tower on July 11, 2002.

"It feels important, it's almost like you want to wrap yourself in it," Girard said. "It's not like another flag."

Yvon Rheaume already has a spot picked out for his flag, which he hasn't yet received. (CBC)

Girard's brother, Yvon Rheaume, also put his name on the waiting list. His daughter was a child then, now she's a mother.

"We wanted one too, as a souvenir, to pass on generation to generation." Rheaume said.

"For my granddaughter, I have a granddaughter now!" Rheaume chuckled.

But after several years, Rheaume still hasn't received his Peace Tower flag.

"I was expecting to receive it within a month or two, not decades. So I'll be surprised if I get it," Rheaume said.

Still taking orders

Any person on the waiting list can inquire when they will receive their flag, according to the Department of Public Works.

The waiting list is updated biannually on the department's website.

The federal government says it will continue taking new orders, as a gesture of goodwill to Canadians.

Pauline Girard intends to pass her flag onto her grandson, Alexandre Rheaume, one day. (CBC)

Despite the long waiting list, Girard encourages other Canadians to order a Peace Tower flag for their children and grandchildren.

But as she clutches her own flag, Girard says it doesn't just belong to her and her family.

All Canadians collectively own the mighty Peace Tower flag.

"People do not realize it's theirs, it's ours," Girard said.

Where the flags have gone

Between June 2012 and June 2014, 994 flags from the Peace Tower were distributed across Canada. This graphic shows the breakdown of where those flags went. (CBC)

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Canada Day: Where the federal leaders are

With Prime Minister Stephen Harper expected to be front and centre on Parliament Hill and New Democrat Leader Tom Mulcair at NDP MP-hosted events across Toronto, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's July 1st festivities will likely have a more small-town vibe.

According to a notice issued by his office on Monday, Trudeau will spend Tuesday morning in Alexandria, Ontario, where he'll kick off his Canada Day by walking in the annual parade — which leaves the local French Catholic elementary school at noon — and speaking at the opening ceremony at Island Park.

Later in the day, he'll make his way to Cornwall for a second — and, at least, going by the party-issued public itinerary, final — round of celebrations.

Trudeau's Canada Day agenda looks downright leisurely compared to the one facing Tom Mulcair, who starts his day with a sunrise citizenship ceremony in East York, Ont. with Matthew Kellway.

After that wraps up, he'll make an appearance at a picnic in High Park hosted by Peggy Nash, followed by a stop at "Neighbours together" on Broadview with Craig Scott, and finally, tours of Thomson and Amesbury Park, courtesy of Dan Harris and Mike Sullivan, respectively.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, meanwhile, is the lone federal leader marking the occasion west of Ontario, beginning with a Lions' Club breakfast and mid-morning parade in Sidney, B.C. Later in the day, she'll team up with folksinger Valdy to serve cake at a Canada Day-themed fundraiser for the Gulf Islands Secondary School Bursary, and round the day off with a lamb barbecue on Saturna Island.

Finally, back in Ottawa, the prime minister has just one official duty on his schedule: the Canada Day noon-hour show, where he'll deliver brief remarks. Once he gets that out of the way, he'll be able to sit back and enjoy the music in the company of his wife, Laureen, Gov.-Gen. David Johnston and his wife, Sharon, Canadian Heritage Minister Shelly Glover and the tens of thousands of Canadians expected to show up to the capital's biggest lawn party.

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